What will be the wine market status and development in Hong Kong (hereinafter shortened as “HK”) right after the announcement of import duty exemption by the HK Financial Secretary on 27 February 2008?  This is a very interesting topic, not just to the wine associates in the industry of HK, China mainland & Macau, but also to the wine lovers (including drinkers & collectors).  However, before we explore this issue, we get to review the WINE DEVELOPMENT IN HK DURING THE PAST TEN YEARS.  This sort of history review may to certain extent disclose some hints and indication which might help readers understand what would happen next in the HK wine market.

Since HK was in big financial difficulties in 1998, like all other neighboring Asian countries, most inhabitants there almost lost everything just overnight.  They lost their jobs and around the same time they became negative-value property owners.  Relatively, most people in HK enjoyed a lot just one year earlier before and right after the hand-over of HK to China in 1997 when they could easily pay for a bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild 1982 or Chateau Margaux 1981 or other top ten first growth Bordeaux wines in repeated bottles.  It was mainly due to considerable daily increase of their assets of stock shares and properties. Money could easily come and let go easily too.  Those were the days…..

Frankly speaking, there might be possibly less than 2% of the population in HK in 1997 who knew about wine (that is around 100,000 against 6 million heads).  And out that head count, maybe only half of that wine-related class who really collected and studied wine information through local & overseas wine magazines (like WINENOW MONTHLY in HK, WINE SPECTATOR in USA, DECANTER in UK, etc.), wine tasting events, etc.  At that stage, wine lovers had got certain knowledge about French wines, especially the Bordeaux & some Burgundy wines in addition with southern region wines.  Most of them were still at learning curve about new world wines from Australia, New Zealand, Chile, USA (mainly Napa Valley & Sonoma County).

It was until after the SARS event (as from September 2003) that the wine market in HK recorded considerable increase in sales & consumption. At that time, people in HK started to realize that LIFE COULD BE SO SHORT.  They either believed that wine could reinforce their immunity or would rather enjoy life with wine, or perhaps both.  Such increase was averagely over 35% against the year 2002 respective figures.  The writer knew one developing wine cellar in HK which managed to sell each case of Chateau Lafite Rothschild 1996 & Chateau Latour 1985 within one day to local solicitor firms as gifts to their counter parts in China mainland during the SARS period. These two cases had already exceeded HKD100,000.

During the hard time within 1998 to 2004 in HK, the majority of wine drinkers would prefer either buying wines at supermarkets or as from the last quarter of 2003 via newspaper advertisement against bulk delivery.  As either way might indicate clear prices within their individual budgets. This was a matter of limited income during the hard time.  Since late 2003, more new importers started to import wines from small countries like Macedonia (north of Greece), Bulgaria, Tunisia, etc.  Of course, middle class wine drinkers would continue going to close-related wine cellars to continue their purchases, but still at medium price setting even after the VIP services from the cellar sales people.  Only the very well-off wine drinkers/collectors would buy overseas via regular auctions, for instance in UK, and keep the forward stock in the books & the ready stock in the bond houses there.  Such act would leave investors sufficient flexibility to resell both stock at good prices or move back some stock to HK for personal consumption after import duty payment (the duty rate was first at 80% & then down to 40% before the exemption).   

Right now, following the duty-free policy against wine import into HK, the initial difficulty stage has almost been over after decent reduction of wine prices against non-delivery stuffs from importers to wholesales & retailers.  However, such reduction had been off-set by continuous increase in freight charges & appreciation of foreign currencies against USD (like Euro, Australian dollar, etc.).  On the other hand, private wine lovers & collectors can now easily form limited companies to apply for Liquor Import Licences to import wines.  That sudden action is killing a great number of wine importers & wholesalers.  Who are the winners of this game?  Logistics and related industries like warehousing, etc. will definitely be the initial winners.  Then who are the subsequent losers?  Other industries which still rely on warehousing will have to suffer by paying more to acquire decent space to run the businesses.

No doubt China mainland wine industry will become the subsequent winner too whereas Macau will lose the re-export role of fine wine.  As China wine industry will face uncountable choices of wines from all over the world even the country currently is still imposing import & other duties on wine.  Three years ago when it was 2005, the HK wine industry expected that Italian & Spanish wines would become more popular during the subsequent 3 to 5 years.  In some ways, the industry was right, but no one could ever predict fully correct as wines from these two countries are still difficult to be classified (unlike the Bordeaux wines with clear classification) as the wine regions there are really tremendous, especially Italy which has wine regions from north to south covering the whole BOOT-LIKE land of the country.

The writer forecasts that there will be more and more new comers in the HK wine industry, followed by frequent wine exhibitions & auction events as well as wine course training (again the wine tutors will have great chances to earn extra income), not just to bloom up the market here, but also to find more golden opportunities in the mainland market where the industry & end-users there are still below the learning curve.  However, sooner or later, the wine market in HK will be developed further to support the fast developing market in China mainland. 

The writer always trusts that wine business may not create a big fortune to traders therein, but it will definitely bring a lot of business contacts to benefit other business sectors.  If you are looking for job placement, go to attend some professional wine training courses and enter the wine industry to start up this fantastic career!  Cheers!

Note by editor: the author is well-known as a wine expert in Hong Kong.

香港十年葡萄酒变迁

           文/阿KEN  译/Lois        刊于2008年5月《酒典》

香港08年2月27日宣布降低葡萄酒关税后，市场将有哪些变化呢？这是一个有趣的题目，因为降税不但会对港澳、中国大陆的葡萄酒业有影响，还将对的葡萄酒爱好者（包括饮用者和收集者）产生巨大的影响。然而，在我们开始探索这个话题之前，不妨先温习一下香港在过去十年葡萄酒市场的变迁历史，相信这段历史也许会带给大家一些启示和线索，了解香港未来的葡萄酒市场将会如何变化。

从自香港1998年遭遇金融危机以后，像其它的毗邻的亚洲国家一样，很多本地居民几乎是在一夜之间失去了所有的一切，失业的同时所购买的房产变成了“负资产”。很多香港居民在一年前，即1997年回归之时，可以很轻松地购买几瓶Chateau Lafite Rothschild 1982 、Chateau Margaux 1981或者其它的10款最顶级的波尔多葡萄酒，这也归功于当时股市和房产的帐面财富不断暴涨。不过，钱来得快去得也快。那些日子都过去了……

坦白地说，在1997年，整个香港人口中，可能不到2%的人（意味着600万人中的10万）了解葡萄酒。在这2%的人当中，可能有大约一半与酒有关系的群体通过中英文的葡萄酒杂志（如本土的WINENOW MONTHLY、 美国WINE SPECTATOR、英国DECANTER等）来学习葡萄酒知识和品尝的。在这个层次的葡萄酒爱好者，已经获得了一定的法国葡萄酒，特别是关于波尔多、勃艮第和南部的一些产区的知识，许多人也在学习新世界产酒国，如澳洲、新西兰、智利、美国（主要为那帕谷和索诺玛谷）的葡萄酒知识。

直至SARS风波（2003年9月）期间，香港葡萄酒的销售和饮用量才相对回升。在那时，香港居民才开始意识到生命可能如此易逝。他们或者相信葡萄酒能强化免疫力，或者希望享受美酒相伴的生活，或者两者皆有，总之，2003年的葡萄酒销量比2002年增长35%。笔者知道的一个实例是，香港某家快速扩展的葡萄酒窖，在一天内卖出了Lafite Rothschild 1996 & Chateau Latour 1985各一箱，由本地的某家公司购买作为送给大陆的合作单位的礼物。这两箱酒的总价超过10万港币。

在香港1998-2004年的艰难时期，大部分的葡萄酒的饮用者选择在超市购酒，或者从2003年最后一个季度起参考报纸促销广告批量购买。这两种方法的任何一种都提示着清楚的标价，符合个人的预算和需求。毕竟，当初时日惟艰，收入有限。从2003年后期，一些新入行的葡萄酒进口商开始尝试从小国家进酒，如马其顿（位于希腊北部）、保加利亚、突尼斯等。当然，中产阶级的葡萄酒饮者仍然在附近的专业酒窖购买中等价位的葡萄酒，这些专业酒窖的销售人员甚至会提供VIP的附属服务。只有非常在行的饮用者和收藏者才会通过海外常规的拍卖场所（比如英国的相关拍卖场），来购买葡萄酒，并存贮在指定的仓库和窖所。这也是为了这方面投资者灵活地以再次卖出拍卖得来的名贵酒品或者支付关税后运回香港来满足个人的饮用需求（免税前开始税率是80%，然后降到40%）。

现在，随着香港酒税的降低，开始时所造成的困境几乎完全被克服，无论是批发商还是经销商都不会再在乎配送。然而，酒税的降低的影响大为减少了，因为随之而来的是运费的逐步提高以及美元相对于葡萄酒出口地国如欧洲、澳洲当地货币的不断贬值。另一方面，作为葡萄酒爱好者或者收藏者，目前也很容易成立有限公司来申请酒牌来进口酒。这种突发的举动正在绞杀着一大批的进口商和批发商。谁是这场变革运动的胜者呢？物流以及相关产业如仓管等无疑是最初的受益者。相对而言，谁又会从中受损呢？其它的依赖于仓管的行业不得不支付更多的费用。

毫无疑问，中国大陆的葡萄酒市场也是接下来的赢家，而澳门将会失去从中转手名酒到内地市场的机会。尽管中国还在征收酒类进口及附属关税，但国内的葡萄酒行业会拥有挑选世界各地无数酒庄葡萄酒的机会。三年前，即2005年时，香港酒界预测意大利和西班牙葡萄酒将在之后的三至五年后会比当时更流行。在某种程度上，这个预测是正确的，只不过没人能够精确地预料到这两个国家的酒的分类如此困难（这一点上完全不像法国波尔多酒那样容易），他们的酒区太复杂了，特别是意大利，这个地图上看来像一只靴子形状的国家，从北到南都是酒区。

笔者预计，未来香港葡萄酒业将会出现越来越来的新人，伴随之而来的是将有更多的相关展览会和拍卖活动，以及葡萄酒培训出现（对于这方面的行家来说，也会出现赚取额外薪水的好机会），不仅会带来本地市场的繁荣，也能在广阔的内地发现黄金的机会，因为那里无论是行业还是终端消费者的的专业知识都很还处于低端。或早或晚，香港的葡萄酒市场会进一步发展，进而支持迅速发展的大陆市场。

笔者一直认为，葡萄酒生意可能不会给贸易商带来很大的财富，但肯定带来非常多的商务接触机会来使其它生意受益。另外，如果你寻找就业机会，去参加一些专业的葡萄酒培训课程，进入到这个奇妙的行业吧！